Israel bombed the Syrian capital of Damascus on Wednesday, targeting the defence ministry and military facilities in a warning to the Syrian government. A US-brokered truce was reestablished shortly after but remains fragile. Benjamin Netanyahu said his country was "working to save our Druze brothers".
So what? More is at play. Israel has positioned itself as the protector of minorities in Syria from abuses by security forces. But the attacks mark a dramatic escalation against a government that
- was already negotiating peace with Tel Aviv;
- has established friendlier relations with the US; and
- shares Israel's enmity towards Iran and its proxy forces in the region.
The backstory. On 11 July, Arab Bedouin tribes reportedly robbed and kidnapped a Druze vegetable seller near the province of Suweida in southern Syria. The violence escalated as retaliatory attacks by the Druze set off a cycle of bloodshed that killed more than 350 people.
The intervention. This culminated on Wednesday when Israel bombed the Syrian defence ministry in Damascus, as well as government forces in the south. The Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa accused Israel of a "large-scale escalation".
Bigger picture. Since Assad's fall, Israel has expanded military outposts into southern Syria to enforce a demilitarised zone along the annexed Golan Heights.
Israel's motivations. Netanyahu has vowed to keep the Golan Heights and Suweida free of Syrian military and said that he "will not allow a second Lebanon to be established there". Israel fears a united Syria, with former al-Qaeda fighters at its helm, could pose a security threat. He wants to avoid, at all costs, assaults that echo Hezbollah's rocket attacks into northern Israel.
Other factors. Netanyahu may also believe the strikes improve his standing at home. The attacks on Syria curtailed his criminal trial on Wednesday. Continued conflict between Israel and its neighbours has been effective at keeping Netanyahu out of court and sustaining his coalition.
The strongman. Appearing tough in the face of potential threats may give Netanyahu greater leverage during negotiations to end the war in Gaza. But it risks exacerbating a delicate sectarian situation in Syria. Clashes between minorities and the government have flared in recent months.
The Druze. An esoteric offshoot of Shia Islam founded in the 11th century, the Druze blend Islamic tenets with other philosophies and a belief in monotheism and reincarnation. Fiercely private and opposed to interfaith marriage, they number around a million globally. In Syria, they are concentrated in Suweida. Some hardline Sunnis dismiss them as heretics.
Do something. More than 150,000 Druze live in Israel and a significant portion serve in the military, including in Gaza. Some have reached a high rank and many identify as citizens of Israel, making domestic pressure from the community hard to ignore.
What to do? Syria's Druze community finds itself pulled in opposite directions. Some leaders back Damascus, while others reject the government and instead appeal to world leaders such as Netanyahu for support. Lebanon's veteran Druze politician, Walid Jumblatt, warns against such overtures. He accuses Israel of fuelling sectarian strife and urges unity within Syria.
One step forward. Syrian security forces pulled out of Suweida yesterday in a bid to quell fighting between Druze militias, Bedouin tribes and regime troops. Al-Sharaa said the Druze would oversee security in the province, in the interest of Syrians "over chaos and destruction".
Two back. But soon after government forces withdrew, Druze groups reportedly began targeting Bedouin villages. Israel then carried out an airstrike on Suweida city.
What's next. Druze reprisals may unsettle hardline Sunni factions within the security forces, whose withdrawal from the province sets a precedent that could embolden Kurdish self-rule in the northeast and tacitly cedes influence in the south to Israel.
What's more… This, above all, is a win for Netanyahu.
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