The Tibetan government-in-exile posted an article on its website this week titled: "Statement affirming the continuation of the institution of Dalai Lama".
So what? The sentence plods with bureaucratic understatement and doesn't sound like the utterance of a living god. But these ten words
- mean the Dalai Lama, who turns 90 on Sunday, will have a successor;
- end years of speculation over whether he would be the last in line of reincarnated deities that stretches back to 1578; and
- have major geopolitical implications for China, India, the UK, the US and other countries.
China. In the first instance, the Dalai Lama's statement sets up a tussle with Beijing, which is expected to name a rival successor just as it did after the 10th Panchen Lama – another Tibetan spiritual leader – died in 1989.
India. If the next Dalai Lama is found in India, as many expect, New Delhi will have to decide whether to extend sanctuary to the new leader in Dharamsala. This is the mountain town where the Tibetan government-in-exile is based and where the Dalai Lama has lived since 1959.
The UK. China is almost certain to pressure countries such as the UK to recognise its choice for the next Dalai Lama when the time comes. By contrast, it is likely to punish those that recognise the successor identified by the Dalai Lama's office.
The US. Donald Trump's reaction, if he is still in power when a successor is found, will be pivotal. The US passed a law in 2020 that authorises sanctions against Chinese officials who interfere with the selection process of the Dalai Lama. But Trump's feelings toward the spiritual leader are less than clear.
History of now. Tibet is one of Beijing's most sensitive territorial issues. The incorporation of Tibet into China in 1950, which preceded a military incursion by the People's Liberation Army, was seen by many as an occupation. China, for its part, says that Tibet has been part of its territory for centuries.
Future-proofing. Strategically, Tibet forms a crucial frontier for China. It borders India, which maintains a tense diplomatic relationship with China partly because of Beijing's clear support for Pakistan. Pakistan fought an air battle with India in May this year over territorial disputes.
What the Dalai Lama says. The Dalai Lama advocates for Tibetan autonomy rather than full independence. But Beijing mistrusts his motives and regularly criticises him in the harshest of language, calling him a "wolf in monk's clothing" among other epithets.
The Tibetan spiritual leader won a Nobel peace prize in 1989 for his non-violent efforts to resolve conflicts based on tolerance and mutual respect. Beijing expressed the "utmost regret and indignation" over the award of the Nobel to him, calling the Dalai Lama a "separatist".
The likely playbook. If the saga over the Panchen Lama's reincarnation is anything to go by, Beijing's strategy on how to deal with the next Dalai Lama will have a few central components.
- It will choose its own successor, probably using a Qing dynasty practice of drawing lots from a golden urn.
- It will then seek to win recognition for its choice from other countries.
- The Beijing-sanctioned Dalai Lama will, when old enough, pledge loyalty to the Communist Party of China and to safeguarding the national unity of China.
- At the same time, Beijing is likely to use diplomatic capital to pressure India over the successor chosen by the Dalai Lama's office, perhaps seeking to persuade New Delhi to withhold recognition.
As things stand it is unlikely that India would comply, but China's economic leverage is growing. In 2024, China's trade surplus with India reached $99 billion, with New Delhi increasingly dependent on its neighbour for the machinery, electronics and chemicals that its industry needs.
In Trump's hands… Much, therefore, will depend on the US. If Washington recognises the Dalai Lama's successor and encourages India to do likewise, then Beijing may find it hard to shut down international acceptance of the new living god.
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