Optical confusion

Zelensky's visit to the White House went much better than last time. But a durable peace still feels elusive View in browser Fred Harter • Tuesday 19 August 2025 Dear friend, Welcome to today's Sensemaker. Long stories short Trump vowed to get rid of "corrupt" mail-in ballots before the US midterms in 2026. Myanmar announced its first general election since a coup four years ago. Ofcom said it would not investigate Love Island despite 14,000 complaints. Optical confusion Volodymyr Zelensky and Europe's top leaders met with Donald Trump in Washington yesterday to discuss Russia's peace proposal.                So what? The stakes could not be higher. Trump's Alaska summit with Putin put Zelensky on the back foot, raising fears that Ukraine could be forced into striking a disadvantageous deal. In Washington, Zelensky and his counterparts pushed Trump on                 a ceasefire; a future trilateral summit involving Zelensky; and security guarantees for Ukraine to deter future Russian aggression.                 Round two. The last time Zelensky stepped into the Oval Office, he was humiliated by Trump who told him he was "gambling with WWIII". Yesterday it was all smiles as Zelensky thanked the US leader for his support and Trump complimented the Ukrainian president on his suit. Public displays. Zelensky also gave Trump a letter from his wife for the First Lady Melania, who wrote to Putin last week about the Ukrainian children that have been abducted by Russia.                 Rallying around. After their one-on-one meeting, Trump and Zelensky held multilateral talks with leaders from the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Finland and the European Commission, who flew to Washington in a show of support for Ukraine. The Nato chief Mark Rutte also attended.                 Flip, flop. Although Trump has spent months threatening Russia with sanctions if it doesn't halt the fighting, the US president now insists a ceasefire is not necessary to secure a longer-term peace deal. Yesterday France's Emmanuel Macron and Germany's Friedrich Merz renewed their calls for a ceasefire, but Trump said "as of this moment, it's not happening".                  Trilateral promises. Trump did promise security guarantees, which he said Putin had agreed to in Alaska. The burden would mostly be shouldered by Europe, supported by the US. He also said there would be a trilateral summit between himself and the two leaders.              However, there is no indication that Putin will agree to such a meeting and Russia has reportedly balked at the idea of Nato troops securing a peace deal in Ukraine.              Land. The US president also talked of "possible exchanges of territory", which will concern Ukraine. In Alaska, Russia is said to have put forward a proposal under which            Ukraine would withdraw from the strategic eastern Donbas region; Russia would stop attacks in the southern areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia; the international community would recognise Russia's sovereignty over Crimea; and Ukraine would be blocked from joining Nato.               Unanswered questions. It is not clear if Trump has agreed to these maximalist terms, but on Sunday he said Zelensky "can end the war with Russia almost immediately" and that Ukraine should give up on reclaiming Crimea and joining Nato.         Bitter pill. Ukraine still controls 2,500 square miles, or 12 per cent, of the Donbas. This includes a fortified line of defences around a string of industrial cities. If these were ceded, a future Russian attack would be much easier. Zelensky has warned repeatedly of this possibility, although Trump yesterday dismissed it as "overrated". On a plate. Gaining the Donbas would represent a major victory for Putin, whose troops have struggled to capture the entirety of the region. UK intelligence says it would take Moscow four years and two million casualties to capture Luhansk and Donetsk, which make up the Donbas and had a pre-war population of 6.5 million, as well as Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.    Legality. Ukraine's constitution rules out changing the country's borders without a referendum. Most citizens would be likely to vote "no". A recent poll found 78 per cent oppose transferring territory under Ukrainian control to Russia.   Facing reality. But continued fighting from Kyiv would come at a price. Even though Ukraine has mounted a dogged defence, it is losing ground. It is unlikely to recapture the areas it has lost, especially if Trump cuts military aid again to put pressure on Zelensky. Compromise. That could open the door to a compromise in which Ukraine accepts Russia's de facto control over parts of its territory without legally relinquishing any land.    What's more… Ukraine has floated a $100 billion US arms purchase, to be financed largely by European allies, as part of the emerging peace framework – a sign that Kyiv is still betting on Western security guarantees even as talk of territorial concessions looms. The Observer News Matrix The Nibs Capital Economy, business and finance Bat plan In the ongoing mission to juice the UK economy, Rachel Reeves has set her sights on bats and newts. The EU Habitats Directive, which currently remains part of British law, says construction projects can be challenged if they kill or threaten the habitat of specific species. This has necessitated expensive workarounds, such as the infamous HS2 bat tunnel, to bring large projects to fruition. The chancellor sees large-scale infrastructure construction as a key part of growth plans and is considering stripping back environmental legislation to simplify planning. The move would delight developers, especially when coupled with the upcoming reform of the judicial review process, which is currently utilised by campaign groups and residents to slow developments. But green campaigners will argue that it reneges on Labour's prior commitment not to throw nature under the bus in its overhaul of the planning system. Wildlife populations are already struggling, even without their protections being further eroded. Technology AI, science and new things Sunshiny days Kudos to the FT and the University of Sheffield for a clear visualisation of the UK's bumper solar power movement. Between 1 January and last Saturday, data shows the country produced 14.08 terawatt hours of electricity, equal to the maximum produced during any of the past five calendar years. This large figure is due to a bright and sunny 2025, and the sweeping build-out of solar technology. Britain is far from peak solar, with planning permission submitted or granted for dozens more major projects. If all reach completion, the UK will vastly increase its energy capture capability. But building infrastructure is one thing. Managing it is another. The UK grid is outdated and unprepared to store and release the variable energy created by renewables. As the country relies more on wind and solar, more investment is needed in unpopular pylon, battery and hydro-storage infrastructure to make sure the grid is effectively balanced. Planning to achieve this (see above) may become easier. The 100-year life Health, education and government Polari(sation) The Polari prize announced a "pause" to its 2025 competition after a backlash for including author John Boyne in the longlist. The award for books that "explore the LGBTQ+ experience" was criticised for including Boyne (author of The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas) who in an op-ed last month called himself a Terf and said of critics of JK Rowling: "For every Commander Waterford, there's a Serena Joy standing behind him, ready to pin a handmaiden down as her husband rapes her." Sixteen out of 24 nominated books have been withdrawn by their authors, and Nicola Dinan, a trans woman and last year's winner, has also refused to take part as a judge. In a statement, Polari committed to "increase representation of trans and gender non-conforming judges" and undertake a "governance and management review". Our planet Climate and geopolitics God's party A plan to disarm Hezbollah has plunged Lebanon into turmoil. The group's supporters have staged protests and its leader has vowed to resist the decision "even if that leads to civil war". Not long ago Hezbollah was a key part of Iran's largely neutered Axis of Resistance, which stretched across the Middle East. But in response to rocket attacks, Israel invaded Lebanon, wiping out the group's leadership, weapons stockpile and thousands of its fighters. Despite its military defeat, Hezbollah still holds considerable sway within Lebanon, where many hail it as the main force of resistance against Israel. If the group urges its supporters to stage more demonstrations, it could paralyse or even bring down Lebanon's fragile government. Ministers have ordered the army to disarm Hezbollah by the end of the year, following pressure from the US. In exchange Israel is expected to halt operations in southern Lebanon. Culture Society, identity and belonging Lucky catch A 1967 cold case may have been solved by a fisherman and a sonar device. Earlier this month, Brody Loch spotted a blue Buick Electra in the Mississippi river with a tool normally used to track bait and detect fish. Human remains were found inside the vehicle after it was dredged from the water by divers and a tow truck. These are yet to be identified but the car belonged to Roy Benn, who was reported missing in 1967 and declared legally dead eight years later. Hundreds of decades-old cold cases have been solved in recent years by advances in genetic genealogy, which combines DNA analysis with the use of family tree databases. The discovery of Benn, provided it is confirmed, shows how much is still down to good fortune. Thanks for reading. Please tell your friends to sign up and tell us what you think. Fred Harter @FredHarter Additional reporting by Brad Gray, Bex Sander and Xavier Greenwood. 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