Trump is for turning

A weapons plan for Kyiv is a big deal. But the devil is in the details View in browser Nina Kuryata • Wednesday 16 July 2025 Dear friend, Welcome to today's Sensemaker. Long stories short Britain set up and ran a covert asylum scheme for Afghans (more below). The men who felled the Sycamore Gap tree were jailed for four years. Dystopian office drama Severance received 27 Emmy nominations. Trump is for turning For the first time since returning to the White House, Donald Trump has pledged to send "top-of-the-line" weapons to Kyiv. He also said he would hit Russia with 100 per cent secondary tariffs if it does not agree to peace with Ukraine within 50 days. So what? This is a clear shift. Not too long ago, the US president kicked Volodymyr Zelensky out of the White House and told him that he didn't "have the cards" in negotiations. But the devil is in the details and Trump's change of tack does not guarantee that his view towards Kyiv won't flip again; enough weapons arrive in the right timeframe to protect Ukraine; and Putin's desire to continue fighting its neighbour will even slightly be dampened. Monday's announcement. Sitting next to the Nato chief Mark Rutte in the Oval Office, Trump expressed frustration with Vladimir Putin and unveiled a weapons plan that would see European countries buy US arms and transfer them to Ukraine. He also threatened economic consequences for Moscow, saying that trade was "great for settling wars". Old habits die hard. The go-between approach seems designed to save the US money and allow it to claim it is not involved in any attacks made with the weapons. Trump called Russia's invasion a "Biden war" and a "Democrat war". He didn't describe it as a Putin war and later told the BBC he was "disappointed but not done" with the Russian leader. Change of heart. Trump's new position on Ukraine still marks an about-turn, for as long as it lasts. His outlook has been reconfigured by three key people: Rutte has lavished praise on the US president and last month persuaded Nato members to increase defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP, as per Trump's wishes. Zelensky has learned lessons from the infamous White House meeting by letting Trump realise Russia's insincerity himself rather than straining to impress it upon him. Putin has repeatedly embarrassed Trump by convincing him he had a deal "about four times" and then bombing Ukrainian cities. Wife guy. Someone else who has played a role is First Lady Melania, who was born in the former Yugoslavia. Trump said on Monday that he would go home and tell her about a conversation he'd had with Putin only for her to respond: "Oh really? Another city was just hit." Congress guy. Then there's Senator Lindsey Graham, a close Trump ally and staunch Ukraine supporter who has criticised Zelensky at opportune moments but otherwise pushed hard to impose new sanctions on Russia and tariffs on countries that trade with it. What's in the box? For all this, Trump's weapons plan is light on detail. Rutte said the US would "massively supply Ukraine with what is necessary" and Trump promised to send Patriot defence systems, adding that some should arrive in Ukraine "within days". He said the US would be reimbursed for their cost by the European Union, but did not reveal any further details including the number of Patriots he planned to send, and there is still no clarity on which countries will provide the equipment. The reaction. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia would "need time" to analyse what was said in Washington on Monday. But sources told Reuters that Putin would keep fighting "until he gets what he wants". Bottom line. Trump's other move was to threaten secondary tariffs, which speaks to his lingering hope that he can persuade Putin to stop the war by squeezing an economy fed by oil and running on the fumes of war spending. These taxes would be paid by US importers trading with countries such as China and India who do business with Russia. The reaction. The Moscow Stock Exchange Index rose sharply on Monday, suggesting investors expected something worse from Trump's "major statement". A former Putin aide Sergei Markov called the tariffs a bluff. They are Trump's fifth threat of economic sanctions.   Do the maths… The Russian senator Konstantin Kosachev is correct to say that a lot could change in the next 50 days both on the battlefield and "in the moods" of the US and Nato. Putin told Trump he would escalate the war in Ukraine within 60 days. That was about two weeks ago. The Observer News Matrix The Nibs Capital Economy, business and finance They killed Kenny South Park has become the unlikely victim of a corporate merger. Last week the long-running animated comedy was removed from Paramount+ outside the US after its international licence expired. Now the release date of the latest season – scheduled to launch on 23 July – is in doubt. The point of contention is a new $3 billion deal for show creators Trey Parker and Matt Stone, which they were negotiating with Paramount Global, but which has become an issue for the studio's would-be owner Skydance. The proposed agreement would last 10 years, while Skydance wants five. The firm believes it has the right to approve contracts even before it is given regulatory approval for the merger. A lawsuit could follow and may be worth the fight if you're Parker or Stone. Even after 26 seasons and more than 300 episodes, South Park remains a ratings machine and one of America's most potent cultural properties. Technology AI, science and new things Dictionary corner The biggest Martian meteorite ever discovered goes on auction in New York today. The rock is called NWA 16788, weighs a little under 25 kilograms and could fetch $4 million. It is roughly 70 per cent larger than the next biggest piece of Mars on Earth and represents 6.5 per cent of all known Martian matter on this planet. NWA 16788 is an olivine-microgabbroic shergottite, a type of rock formed by the cooling of magma from the red planet. Its coarse surface has regmaglypts, or depressions, formed when it burned through the Earth's atmosphere. About a fifth of the object is made up of a glass known as maskelynite, and it has a distinctive reddish hue. The rock was spotted by a meteorite hunter in Niger in 2023. Sotheby's says that with little terrestrial weathering it's "likely a relative newcomer here on Earth". The 100-year life Health, education and government Operation Rubific A Royal Marine accidentally released a list of more than 33,000 Afghans who helped the British military in a breach that the Ministry of Defence kept hidden for two years. The individuals had applied to schemes to resettle in the UK with their families. As a result of the data leak, Britain has covertly offered asylum to roughly 24,000 Afghans at risk of reprisal from the Taliban. Evacuees have crossed into Pakistan then been loaded onto government planes to fly to the UK. The breach happened in February 2022 when a soldier attached a spreadsheet to an email sent to a group of Afghans. A superinjunction prevented it from being made public until Wednesday. The MoD became aware of the leak in August 2023, when they were alerted by a member of the public who came across it online. A total of £7 billion has been earmarked to deal with the consequences, taken from the Treasury reserve, which is meant to be used for "genuinely unforeseen, unaffordable and unavoidable pressures". This one was avoidable. Our planet Climate and geopolitics No justice In June 2021 three aid workers employed by Médecins Sans Frontières were shot and killed as conflict ripped through northern Ethiopia. Their bodies were found nearly half a kilometre from their car, which was torched and riddled with bullets. An internal MSF review into the deaths concluded yesterday that the murders were "intentional and targeted". It said that an Ethiopian military convoy was present but stopped short of directly accusing soldiers of perpetrating the attack. The MSF staff killings are not the only instance when the government has promised to investigate alleged abuses and then done nothing. Another is a massacre in 2024 when soldiers killed dozens of civilians. This doesn't bode well for Ethiopia's transitional justice process, which is supposed to address human rights violations and deliver accountability. It was set up after the country lobbied to end a separate UN probe, but is yet to be fully implemented. Culture Society, identity and belonging A child's world The UK government has published updated guidance for teaching relationships, sex and health education in school. This follows years of dispute and debate about the subject since it was made mandatory in 2017. A week before last year's general election was announced, the Conservative government opened a consultation in response to concerns over "age-inappropriate" content. Labour's new guidance, to be implemented from September 2026, is a response to that consultation and a time capsule of potential harms faced by children today. Additions to the secondary school curriculum include lessons about misogyny in pornography, AI-generated deepfakes, incels, and financial sextortion. The Conservative government's proposed guidance told schools not to teach gender identity. Labour didn't take this up, but said that teachers should be "mindful" of the debate about biological sex and gender reassignment. Thanks for reading. Please tell your friends to sign up and tell us what you think. Nina Kuryata nina.kuryata@observer.co.uk Additional reporting by Xavier Greenwood, Fred Harter and Phoebe Davis. Graphic by Bex Sander. Edited by Xavier Greenwood.     More from The Observer The News Meeting Illiberal land: Hungary's empire of ideas This is the story of how and why a small Central European country became the epicentre of global conservatism. It's the tale of two men, and what happens when we ignore the powerful forces behind a government. 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