Heavy weather

There was a freakishness to this week's flooding in the US, though climate change and forecasting cuts won't help to prevent future crises View in browser Xavier Greenwood • Thursday 10 July 2025 Dear friend, Welcome to today's Sensemaker. Long stories short Europe's top human rights court ruled that Russia downed Flight MH17 in 2014. Nvidia became the first public company to reach a market cap of $4 trillion. Astronomers found a galaxy that has not changed for seven billion years. Heavy weather A week after the Texas floods, rescuers continue to search for 173 people who are missing. More than 120 are confirmed dead, including 27 from a girls' summer camp. Satellite imagery shows the once pristine campground churned into mud and debris. So what? The debate around who or what was to blame for the disaster has typically divided along partisan lines. But storms don't take sides, and this one has raised questions about the impact Trump's actions had on the deadliness of the floods; how much humans can predict extreme weather events; and to what degree climate change will make things harder. Perfect storm. The severity of the flash floods was in part due to the geology of the area, which has a fault zone that can intensify rainfall patterns. This bit of Texas is known as "flash flood alley" because of a history of devastating storms caused by its steep terrain; poor soil absorption; narrow canyons; major river basins; and position between cold air from the north and warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. Last mile. The scale of devastation was also due to timing. The US National Weather Service issued flood watch messages on Thursday afternoon, but it wasn't until early Friday – when most Texans were in bed – that warnings escalated. 1.14am. The weather service issues its first flash flood warning at a "considerable" level, with three more sent over the following hours. 4.03am. The service issues a "catastrophic" warning after the Guadalupe river more than doubles its height in 90 minutes. 5.16am. The local police department issues a flood alert that warns of a "life-threatening event". By this point the Guadalupe has exceeded 37 feet, breaking the previous record and five times its normal height. 5.32am. The sheriff's office tells residents to "move to higher ground immediately". Could the NWS have done more? Despite suggestions otherwise, probably not. Weather models are better than ever, with a four-day forecast as accurate as a one-day forecast 30 years ago. But there are limitations. The "butterfly effect" was coined to describe how tiny changes in the atmosphere cause vastly different outcomes. It is nearly impossible to predict the exact locations and intensity of thunderstorms days in advance. Heavy weather. There was also a freakishness to the floods, with less than 0.1 per cent chance of so much rain falling in affected areas in any given year. But climate change is making these events more frequent and intense because warm air absorbs more moisture than cool air, per the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. To wit: "extreme" precipitation rose by up to 15 per cent in Texas from 1980 to 2020. Pointed fingers. The Trump administration's sweeping attempts to shrink the federal government have directly impacted the NWS and its parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organisation. By the numbers: 600 – staff lost by the NWS since February through firings, early retirements and voluntary redundancies from a total of 4,200 61.5 per cent – the current vacancy rate at two local offices in California and Kansas 22 per cent – the vacancy rate at the San Antonio office, which was central to forecasting last week's storm Beyond the noise. Layoffs may hinder the ability to respond to future crises but there's no evidence cuts made the situation worse in Texas. Although San Antonio didn't have a "warning coordinating meteorologist" to liaise with emergency management services during a severe weather event, the office had extra forecasters on duty. Bigger picture. The Trump administration has proposed increasing the NWS budget by nearly 7 per cent in 2026, but reducing the NOAA's by 25 per cent. This would jeopardise labs that produce forecast tools and conduct research to better predict extreme localised rainfall. What's more… That research would help not just Americans, but everyone. The Observer News Matrix Postcard from SW19 According to Wimbledon's website, its new darling really did come out of nowhere. Mirra Andreeva was born on 29 April 2007 in N/A, N/A, before settling in her current hometown of N/A. Maybe that explains the extra-terrestrial ability. It explains little else. Read George Simms' dispatch from day ten of Wimbledon. The Nibs Capital Economy, business and finance Copper topped Why would Donald Trump impose a 50 per cent tariff on copper when the US imports nearly half the copper it uses – and that copper is needed for mobile phones, electric motors, generators, pipes, chips, boilers, drugs, wiring, phone lines, power lines and heat exchangers among many other things? There must be a good reason because the tariff will clearly fuel inflation, and it turns out there is. As the WSJ explains, the US Commerce Department is trying to dilute reliance on imports and boost domestic production, and has been since the Biden administration. It says America's smelting and mining capacity lags behind competitors, chief among them Chile and China. What the US doesn't lack is copper ore, as they know in Utah, home to the Bingham Canyon mine southwest of Salt Lake, the world's largest hole. The mine employs locals but is wholly owned by Rio Tinto, listed in London and Sydney. Technology AI, science and new things Vision to nowhere Akon City was meant to be a real-life Wakanda: a £5 billion metropolis in Senegal that would run on solar power and use crypto as its payment system. Futuristic designs featured strangely curved skyscrapers, lush lagoons and an amusement park. The singer Akon said the first phase of construction would be finished by 2028. The reality consisted of missed payments, feasibility questions and little to disturb the farm animals grazing the land on which the city was to be built. Now Senegal has confirmed the project no longer exists and that it will instead create a tourist resort, with Akon retaining 20 of the 136 acres he was initially granted. What will happen to the Akon City Welcome Center – which has been partially constructed – remains to be seen. The 100-year life Health, education and government Blind judgement Sir Robert Chote, chair of the UK statistics authority, is stepping down after being criticised for overseeing "systemic" failures of management at the Office for National Statistics. The ONS has been in trouble since at least spring 2024, when the Bank of England warned that patchy UK labour market data was clouding decision making about how to set interest rates. ONS data is also used by the government to make policy decisions in areas including state benefits, housing, migration and crime, as well as by the private sector. Last month a highly critical government review said the ONS had "deep-seated" issues and that officials working on the labour statistics were reluctant to raise concerns with senior managers. Chote's decision to move to a position at Oxford University in the autumn will leave another gap in the data world after Sir Ian Diamond, the UK national statistician, stood down in May for health reasons. Our planet Climate and geopolitics True patriot After admitting last week that he hadn't made "any progress" with Russia, and agreeing this week to send Patriot missiles to Ukraine, Donald Trump seems to have seen the light: Vladimir Putin wants his war to continue. In other words, back to square one. The fact that weapons shipments to Ukraine were paused in the first place betrays, at best, a lack of coordination. CNN reported on Tuesday that the defence secretary Pete Hegseth authorised the freeze without informing the White House. Trump, while sitting next to Hegseth, said that he didn't know who was responsible. The decision to send defensive weapons is welcome in Kyiv, even if Ukraine needs far more. Behind the psychodrama are genuine concerns about US stockpiles. Culture Society, identity and belonging On the grid Apple is challenging ESPN and Netflix for Formula 1's US TV rights. If it wins, it will represent a full circle moment. F1: The Movie is Apple's biggest box office success, grossing more than $300 million since it was released a couple of weeks ago. It sometimes feels more like a commercial than a piece of fiction, so it makes sense that Apple would want the real thing. With Cadillac joining the F1 grid in 2026 and grands prix in Austin, Miami and Vegas, a big TV deal is the next frontier in the sport's quest to break America. While ESPN currently pays around $90 million a year to show F1, the new deal is expected to exceed $120 million. The network passed over its exclusivity period but is understood to still be in discussions, while the high price and relatively low viewership numbers are likely to force out Netflix. Apple is in pole position. Thanks for reading. Please tell your friends to sign up and tell us what you think. Xavier Greenwood xavier@observer.co.uk Additional reporting by Giles Whittell, Barney Macintyre, Nina Kuryata and George Simms. Edited by Giles Whittell.     More from The Observer Read Nigel Slater's midweek treat: gooseberry almond pudding A pudding perfect when eaten warm from the oven, but great when cooled and in a tin for a summer picnic Click here to read → Follow Follow The Observer on social media on your preferred platform:   The Observer     The Observer Food Monthly The Observer Magazine The Observer New Review   Listen Listen for free in the Tortoise app or wherever you get your podcasts: Want to change how you receive these emails? Update email preferences Copyright © 2025 Tortoise Media. All rights reserved. Did this email get caught in your spam filter? Add editor@newsroom.tortoisemedia.com to your address book to never miss an email again. No longer want to receive this newsletter? Unsubscribe here.