Thailand's coalition government hangs by a thread after the prime minister criticised her own military in a leaked phone call with the former leader of Cambodia.
So what? The country is no stranger to a high-stakes political crisis. 'Teflon Thailand' has seen roughly a dozen coups and 20 constitutions since absolute monarchy ended in 1932. But the latest may finish off a family that has dominated politics for 25 years. The instability
- leaves the coalition rudderless with a razor thin majority;
- comes as Thai officials try to negotiate a trade deal to avoid Trump's hefty tariffs; and
- spotlights the enduring power struggle between the country's elected governments and the powerful military-royalist establishment.
Death on the border. The crisis stems from an unlikely source. A Cambodian soldier died in May during a skirmish with Thai troops, reigniting a long-running border dispute. The countries have long been at loggerheads over interpretations of colonial-era maps.
De-escalation backfires. As tensions flared, Thailand's prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra spoke on the phone to Cambodia's former premier, Hun Sen, whose son now holds the job. Audio of the call was leaked last month. Paetongtarn explicitly criticised a Thai army commander and repeatedly kowtowed to Hun Sen. She called him "uncle".
Frenemies. Hun Sen, who wrote on Facebook that he had shared the damaging audio with 80 officials, was close to Paetongtarn's father Thaksin Shinawatra. A billionaire populist who once owned Manchester City Football Club, Thaksin
- became prime minister in 2001;
- won re-election with 75 per cent of parliamentary seats in 2005; then
- was deposed in a military coup in 2006 and went into self-imposed exile.
Even after his removal, Thaksin has remained a driving force behind the psychodrama and power struggles of Thai politics. His sister and brother-in-law have both had stints as PM.
Political suicide. The Shinawatras have always had a fractious relationship with the military, but an uneasy alliance emerged in 2023 to keep a progressive party out of government and end Thaksin's exile. Still, Paetongtarn's comments crossed a red line. One weary Thai local, Ivy, diplomatically called it a "naive mistake" that reflects Paetongtarn's political inexperience. Paetongtarn is the country's youngest prime minister and has never held office before.
Swift reaction. The Bhumjaithai Party promptly left the coalition, some 10,000 protesters took to the streets, and Thailand's constitutional court suspended Paetongtarn from office pending an investigation. Thai media outlets reported yesterday that the country's anti-corruption body was also looking at alleged ethics violations around the call. Few in Bangkok think she'll survive.
Another coup? Probably not. The constitutional court has become adept at removing prime ministers. Last August, Paetongtarn's predecessor Srettha Thavisin was ousted and arguably for far less. But the question is who will come next.
Slim pickings. The constitution requires parties to submit a handful of candidates to be prime minister before elections, and only those nominated in 2023 would be eligible to win the parliamentary vote needed to take power. The People's Party (which leads in polls but is disliked by conservatives) is excluded, so the list of options is short.
Take a guess. Backroom conversations are ongoing and it isn't clear how things will shake out. Thaksin said recently: "In Thai politics there are no true friends or permanent foes." If lawmakers can't agree on a new PM – military generals are in the running – there may be a snap election.
A nation adrift. The country is in disarray at a time when strategic, decisive leadership is needed more than ever. The economy is forecast to grow by 2 per cent this year, far below neighbours such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia. Thailand is also trying to negotiate deals with the US to avoid 36 per cent tariffs, while maintaining warm relations with China.
Overplayed their hand. Thaksin himself faces legal woes, including a charge of royal defamation, which he denies. The political scientist Dr Napon Jatusripitak said that Paetongtarn's removal would "strip the Shinawatras of their last direct link to power".
What's more… That would bring an end to a decades-long dynasty that once commanded millions of supporters and fundamentally remade the politics of Thailand.
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario