Response. But smugglers have adapted to the heavily patrolled shores by inflating the boats in secret and picking up migrants directly from the water – where the French police are only allowed to intervene in life-threatening situations.
Counter-response. The new guidelines, which are expected to be unveiled next month, will allow interceptions within 300 metres of the shore. Enver Solomon from the Refugee Council said this brings "considerable risks of loss of life", especially for young children and babies.
Lessons from Lesbos. Turkey struck a deal with the EU in 2016 to physically intercept boats carrying Syrian migrants who were heading to Greece and return them to Turkey. The number of arrivals to Greek shores dropped from nearly 900,000 to less than 40,000 within a year.
The cost. Turkey's designation as a "safe third country" has come under scrutiny due to its treatment of refugees and suspension of readmission processes in 2020. Asylum seekers have been left in limbo on Greek shores as they can't return to Turkey while being told they should.
Lessons from Sabratha. Italy and the EU pay Libya to forcibly stop migrant departures and intercept boats in the Central Mediterranean. They have also enhanced drone surveillance of the water through the European border agency and limited the activity of NGO rescue ships. Sea crossings to Italy dropped by 59 per cent last year.
The cost. Human rights organisations have reported systematic abuses suffered by migrants intercepted, forcibly returned to Libya and detained. Pushback teams have also been accused of making the seas more dangerous. More than 400 people have died so far in 2025.
Why Britain cares. Reform UK's emergence as Labour's main political rival goes hand-in-hand with a 45 per cent jump in Channel crossings this year. The rise is down to
- political turmoil in origin countries such as Eritrea, Afghanistan and Sudan;
- asylum seekers trying to reapply in the UK after being refused in the EU;
- a rise in the number of red days this year, indicating calmer sea conditions; and
- increasingly packed boats, which are carrying several times as many people as in 2021.
Why French cooperation matters. Migrants who cross the Channel tend to be from countries with which neither the UK nor France have return agreements. If Britain intercepted boats and unilaterally returned them to Calais, Peter Walsh from the Migration Observatory said it would amount to an invasion under international law.
It still might not work. The National Crime Agency is now investigating more cases of people smuggling than any other crime. But gangs are adaptable and highly professionalised, with many senior figures residing in non-EU countries.
Dangers ahead. At least 73 people died crossing the Channel last year, a fivefold rise on the year before. If that number increases due to risky interceptions by French authorities – and evasion attempts by people smugglers – legal challenges to the plans will mount.
There's the rub. For as long as the UK has a shortage of safe and legal asylum routes, there is a limit to how much the policing of waters will stop crossings. But Walsh said an expansion of these routes was "politically inconceivable" in the current climate.
A returns deal, which previous governments have advocated, is back on the table. For each small boat migrant returned to France, an asylum seeker would be returned to the UK. This would not make a difference in terms of absolute numbers but might act as a deterrent.
Reality check(s)… Small boat crossings remain a statistically trivial part of the overall migration figures to the UK, France already hosts more asylum seekers than Britain, and nearly three-quarters of the world's refugees reside in low and middle-income countries.
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