On Trump time

Nato is now in a rush convince the US president it is worth America's time and money View in browser Nina Kuryata • Wednesday 25 June 2025 Dear friend, Welcome to today's Sensemaker. Long stories short A Pentagon report said US strikes delayed Iran's nuclear programme by months (more below). The UK is set to expand its nuclear deterrent with 12 new fighter jets. Actress Emma Thompson said sex should be recommended on the NHS. On Trump time Donald Trump yesterday revealed a flash of anger when he was asked about alleged ceasefire violations by Iran and Israel. He said the two countries had been fighting "so long and so hard" that they "don't know what the fuck they're doing". So what? Trump is impatient, and his impatience has consequences. His desire for quick deals speaks to a broader indiscipline that has led to an Israel-Iran ceasefire deal that could break at any moment; Russian breakthroughs in Ukraine while Putin dodges peace talks; and a Nato summit that is all about Trump. Flying visit. It was over the whir of Marine One that Trump took Iran and Israel to task over their failure to keep the peace. The presidential helicopter started him on a journey to the Nato summit in The Hague. Organisers have shortened the schedule from two days to 24 hours, and there will be no meeting of the Ukraine council. The narrow focus is on defence spending. Man in a rush. Nato is trying to learn lessons from last week's G7 summit, which Trump left early to deal with events in the Middle East. World leaders failed to agree a statement on the war in Ukraine, having issued others on migrant smuggling, AI, critical minerals, wildfires, transnational repression and quantum computing. The solution is a curtailed summit designed to convince Trump on the key point that Nato is worth America's time and money. On Tuesday, the US president posted a series of text messages from Nato chief Mark Rutte praising his geopolitical chops. Highlights included: "Congratulations and thank you for your decisive action in Iran. That was truly extraordinary, and something no one else dared to do." "It was not easy but we've got them all signed onto 5 per cent… You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done." "Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win." The number. If Nato commits to spending 5 per cent of its GDP on defence at the summit, as Rutte expects, the hope is that this will keep Trump on board with the alliance – even if the deadline is a distant 2035 and there is some creative accounting to get there. The problem. Defence targets may help deter a wider war with Russia, but they don't solve the immediate issue of the conflict in Ukraine. President Zelensky is expected to meet Trump at the summit, but signs are that America's patience for peace is running out and it wants a quick return to business as usual with Moscow. Trump's administration has dismissed an inter-agency working group tasked with pressuring Russia to speed up talks with Ukraine. The US Senate postponed sanctioning Russia to late July. Trump's opposition has prevented the EU lowering the price cap on Russian oil. Go figure. Kurt Volker, former US ambassador to Nato, said Europe sees support to Ukraine "as integral to our security through Nato. The US simply doesn't see it that way." To this point. Senior US officials tell anyone who'll listen that Europe has to step up. But… The 'coalition of the willing' proposed by the UK's Keir Starmer exists so far only as a series of summits and meetings.   Starmer has ruled out sending troops to Ukraine after the war without US intelligence, surveillance and satellite communications support. Since the US is reluctant to continue providing that, this idea looks likely to be shelved for now. Arms deficit. Long term defence targets are one thing, but none of Ukraine's EU allies is filling the weapons hole that Kyiv faces as US support dries up. Russia makes as much ammunition in three months as Nato members make in a year. 'Deterrence is back.' That said, the nature of Trump's intervention in Iran won't have gone unnoticed by Putin. Bombing a Russian ally with B-2 planes when Moscow's equivalent was just decimated by homemade Ukrainian drones sends a signal, even if inadvertent. On the other hand… America's unilateral attack gives Russia some cover to continue airstrikes on its neighbour. Not that it needs the excuse. The Observer News Matrix The Nibs Capital Economy, business and finance Space race Two years ago, HSBC announced plans to move its London HQ from a Canary Wharf skyscraper to a smaller office block near St Paul's Cathedral. At the time, the decision seemed like a no-brainer. But it may prove foolish now it wants its workers back on site. Bloomberg reports that HSBC is in talks to secure additional office space, which could cost up to £150 million a year, to relieve the squeeze caused by the upcoming move. If it cannot be secured, HSBC staff in London may only be able to go into the office for one-and-a-half days a week when the company wants them for three. It is understood the bank is also looking to buy more space in Bangalore, Hyderabad and Guangzhou. Unfortunately for HSBC, it is not the only firm backpedalling on the decision to cut real estate costs after the pandemic. As such, there is a shortage of modern sites to suit the hybrid worker and the remaining space is more expensive. Technology AI, science and new things Let me Go- Google might be forced to make changes to its search business under new anti-competition rules in the UK. The company handles more than 90 per cent of general search queries in Britain, with more than 200,000 businesses depending on its search advertising to reach customers. The Competition and Markets Authority thinks this is a problem and announced yesterday that it is preparing to give Google "strategic market status", which would enable the watchdog to use extra powers to regulate the search giant. A final decision is due in October, but the CMA said it is minded to introduce a number of remedies, including giving users "choice screens" to help them switch between search services and ensure "fair ranking" of search results. Google is facing antitrust pressures globally, including a landmark federal lawsuit that found the company has maintained an illegal monopoly in search. Bing will be delighted. The 100-year life Health, education and government Welfare backlash Keir Starmer said he would press on with welfare reforms despite more than 100 MPs backing a "reasoned amendment" that would stop the legislation in its tracks. Tabled by Dame Meg Hillier, chair of the Treasury select committee, the amendment is supported by 12 other select committee chairs as well as dozens of backbenchers. The 108 signatories would be enough to defeat the government, but less than the total thought to be toying with a rebellion should the amendment fail to be selected. The Observer revealed on Sunday that up to 150 MPs were planning to revolt. It is understood that this figure – which would represent the largest rebellion of Starmer's premiership – tallies with government thinking. The question is whether those trying to pass the measures will budge on Personal Independence Payments, an in-work benefit for people with disabilities. A proposed points system for this is the main bone of contention. Our planet Climate and geopolitics Core concern The fate of 400kg of Iranian uranium is unknown. The existence of the material, enough to make ten warheads if further enriched to weapons-grade levels, was a key factor behind Donald Trump's decision to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. The International Atomic Energy Agency last saw the material about a week before Israel first attacked Iran, but lost access to it afterwards. This is easier than it may sound given the entire stockpile can reportedly be stored in 16 large cylinders, which would fit in a few car boots. The IAEA chief, Rafael Grossi, said Iran could have moved the stockpile out of harm's way before the US started bombing, a possibility also floated by Trump administration officials. If this is true and the initial Pentagon assessment of the US strikes is also accurate, Iran's nuclear programme may not have been obliterated, but merely delayed by a matter of months. Culture Society, identity and belonging Jeff off Jeff Bezos has been forced to move the venue of his wedding to journalist Lauren Sánchez this week, owing to local opposition in Venice. The three-day extravaganza was expected to end with a reception on Saturday at the Scuola Grande della Misericordia, a palatial 16th century building in the centre of the city. It has reportedly been relocated to Arsenale, a historic shipyard complex in the quieter eastern district of Castello. The wedding, which is estimated to cost at least $10 million, has provoked a backlash from campaigners who say it will turn the already crowded city into a theme park for the rich and famous. They have unfurled anti-Bezos banners at various locations and were threatening to peacefully blockade the waterways around the original venue with inflatable crocodiles to stop guests from entering. Thanks for reading. Please tell your friends to sign up and tell us what you think. Nina Kuryata nina.kuryata@tortoisemedia.com Additional reporting by Brad Gray, Patricia Clarke, Catherine Neilan and Fred Harter. Edited by Xavier Greenwood.     More from The Observer The Slow Newscast How to disappear In the UK, a person is reported missing every 90 seconds. But how in a society of internet, phones and social media is it so easy to go missing? This is the story of two men and how sometimes people don't even realise they've gone missing Click here to listen → Follow Follow The Observer on social media on your preferred platform:   The Observer     The Observer Food Monthly The Observer Magazine The Observer New Review   Listen Listen for free in the Tortoise app or wherever you get your podcasts: Want to change how you receive these emails? Update email preferences Copyright © 2025 Tortoise Media. All rights reserved. Did this email get caught in your spam filter? Add editor@newsroom.tortoisemedia.com to your address book to never miss an email again. 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