The Pentagon showed satellite pictures yesterday of six neat holes in the mountain that hides Iran's Fordow nuclear enrichment plant.
So what? That's the extent of the evidence made public so far of what Donald Trump called a spectacular military success. Be that as it may, the attack on Fordow and two other nuclear sites was
- the first combat use of America's biggest non-nuclear bomb;
- a display of raw military power staged without the approval of Congress, western allies or the UN; and
- a gamble aimed at ensuring that the US can now avoid being dragged further into Israel's war with Iran.
Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, framed the attack as a warning to the world: "American deterrence is back."
MOP op. A total of 14 massive ordnance penetrator bombs (MOPs) were dropped by B-2 bombers from six miles up shortly before dawn on Sunday local time, with the aim of halting Iran's nuclear weapons programme for good. A Pentagon spokesman called the damage "extremely severe". Cruise missiles and two more MOPs hit facilities at Natanz and Isfahan.
It's not clear what if anything remains of the enrichment centrifuges at Fordow, but Iranian paramedics said at least 21 people had been injured, four of them seriously. None had signs of "radioactive contamination".
What is clear is that, by attacking Iran, Trump has taken a risk none of his predecessors judged worthwhile for fear it would at best backfire and at worst ignite a global conflagration. Meanwhile:
- Benjamin Netanyahu has realised a decades-old dream of involving the US in direct military confrontation with a country that has denied Israel's right to exist since 1979.
- Israel is more united behind the goal of destroying Iran's nuclear sites than it has been behind Netanyahu's 17-month war on Gaza.
- The world is about to find out if American involvement unites Iranians behind their ageing supreme leader or helps end his 36-year hold on power.
World War Three? Not yet. These were precision strikes with 15-ton bombs delivered by aircraft based in Missouri. Administration officials said they hoped the operation would be seen as akin to the assassination of Osama bin Laden rather than the start of an open-ended conflict.
Blowback. Iran's anglophone foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, called the attacks "a betrayal of diplomacy" and a red line crossed that would have "dangerous consequences". 40,000 US troops in the region are now potential targets and there's a risk Iran's nuclear programme will simply "go dark", beyond the reach of inspectors as in North Korea. But it's not clear how the regime will retaliate, or if it can.
- Its military command and air defences have been decimated in the past two weeks.
- Its proxies in Gaza and Lebanon have been destroyed or severely weakened by Israel since October 7.
About that diplomacy. Betrayed or not, it isn't dead, a Tehran spokesman told CNN. Putin is hosting Araghchi in Moscow today. Trump said the choice for Iran was peace or tragedy and the UK urged Tehran to take him up on his offer of talks.
Ruse. The B-2s that dropped the bombs arrived from the west, undetected in part – the US says – because of a decoy mission flown by other B-2s across the Pacific to Guam.
Impasse. Iran has threatened to retaliate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which a sixth of the world's oil passes en route to market. That would hurt China, which buys a third of all Gulf oil, but might boost Russia by driving up world oil prices and thus its revenues.
Unholy grail. Fordow has been at or near the top of the Israeli military's hit list since its centrifuges were buried deep underground after their existence was revealed by Barack Obama in 2009. Uranium enrichment here and at other sites put Iran "days away" from building a bomb – or so Netanyahu claimed. The official US intelligence estimate is not so scary, but Trump preferred to believe Israel.
Dirty work. Last week Britain and France focused their diplomatic efforts on urging Israel to de-escalate. Yesterday they were making the same request of Iran, but at the recently concluded G7 Germany's Friedrich Merz thanked Israel for doing the West's "dirty work". After months of vacillation, Donald Trump joined the fight.
Why? Although it may undermine efforts to cultivate the image of peacemaker, factors probably include
- US intelligence – shown to Trump by his CIA chief at Camp David on 8 June – showing Israel was going to attack Iran anyway;
- Trump's determination to prevent Iran obtaining nuclear weapons;
- his loss of faith in reaching a new deal with Iran by diplomatic means; and
- his admiration for Mossad's recent successes killing senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard leaders.
Unheard. Representatives from both main parties have tried to stop Trump attacking Iran by invoking the 1973 War Powers Resolution, which requires congressional approval before the US goes to war.
But Trump is C-in-C. He went to war anyway.
What's more… he may have to stick at it just to get the job done at Fordow. Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has been there many times and tells the FT the centrifuges could be half a mile underground, deeper than even multiple MOPs can reach.
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